On November 26, Manuel Vogt, Associate Professor in International Security in UCL’s Department of Political Science, is giving a virtual talk on ‘State Violence, Collective Memories, and Post-war Support for the Left in Guatemala’ at Hertie School in Berlin. Manuel will present his research on the long-term political consequences of state violence during Guatemala’s 30-years civil war, conducted in collaboration with Prof. Ricardo Saenz de Tejada at the Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala. Their study theorizes why indiscriminate counterinsurgent violence by state forces increases post-conflict electoral support for the insurgents and empirically analyzes the effect of wartime indiscriminate state violence on post-war electoral support for leftist parties in Guatemala. The results of the study indicate a robust and lasting positive effect of state violence on post-war support for the Left at the municipal level, suggesting that brutal counterinsurgency campaigns are likely to entail significant long-term political costs for states.
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